Monday, April 30, 2007

Market Recap

A weak end to the month of April. I suppose traderr were trying to get a jump start on the 'Sell in May' theory.

Todays Biggest Winners
  • Nondurable household goods
  • Household Goods
  • Electronic office equipement
  • Personal Products
  • Computer Service

Todays Biggest losers
  • Hotels
  • Tires
  • Trucking
  • Forestry
  • Metals

Circuit city is getting a haircut to the tune of 10% in after hours after warning on sales and potential losses.

The Shanghai composite has another 10-15% of upside before it falls apart according to some studies I have looked at. I expect global markets to go the way of Shanghai. Possibly sometime in late May after the Memorial Day weekend.

Two stocks I want to own in May are KO and MAT. Coca Cola and Mattel tend to outperform in May a good 90% of times.

Pre market

Lots of weakness across the Asian markets though the Shanghai Composite is making new highs. The European indices are fairly bullish thus far.

Personal spending rose less than forecast.


Verizon net drops though sales surpass analyst expectations.

Pitney Bowes reports lower profits on sluggish growth.

Semiconductor sales were up in March signaling perhaps the bottom in chips is here.

Pre Market futures indicate a flat open. Perhaps we will get a pullback today ? The market definately needs a breather with the 3 major indices in overbought territory.

Friday, April 27, 2007


The markets are up again heading into the final hour of trading. Why am I not surprised ? It appears nothing can stand in the way of a bull or maybe I should say liquidity. Gold is flying through the roof along with the Euro. I'm not complaining. If the Fed wants to drive the dollar down to zero then they can be my guest. I'll keep picking up more gold and silver and foreign currency. Maybe some real estate too.

BTW- My long in BIDU AND NTRI are helping my portfolio outperform the overall market. I wish I could say the same for SNDK , but I think a bottom is here and SNDK offers a great entry point.

Just another day in the office for me.....

Pre Market

Weakness in the Asian markets and all across Europe. I suspect a pullback in the US markets is near.

GDP number came in weaker than expected showing 1.3% Q1 growth vs a consensus range of 1.4-2.7%.I would think the market reacts positively to this news because slowing growth means a rate cut is around the corner.

The US dollar has set an all time low against the Euro. Funny how the Dollar drops 40% over the last few years and the US markets are up 40%. Also note the Yen has spiked in the last few minutes with the GDP release.

Gold is starting to move back up after the pullback the last few days.


Burger King beats analyst expectations as everyone hails the King.

Exxon continues it record profit spree as high oil prices continue to boost earnings.

Pre Market Futures are indicating a weak open. I expect some sort of pullback today. The recent runup has been ridiculous and we need a nice 2-3% decline for the sake of sanity.

Thursday, April 26, 2007


Up most of the day but a weak close. Maybe a pullback is in hand. The S&P was actually down on the day. The all important GDP number are out tomorrow. I suspect there will be some profit taking ahead of the weekend. Who knows what could happen between now and Monday.

The chips and homebuilders were leading today while the miners and airlines lagged.

I think a lot of people are in disbelief at the strength of this market and the fact the Dow has been up 18 of 20 days which is beyond belief.I think we will finally get a pullback starting tomorrow and into next week. Then again, if everyone is waiting for a pullback it usually does not occur.

Interesting videos with Economic Hit man John Perkins.


This is looking like 1999 all over again. Amazon is putting some hedge funds out of business. Over $60 currently. Wow. Watch BIDU run in anticipation of its earnings.

Pre Market

The markets in Asia and Europe are all up. US market futures are sharply higher indicating a strong open.


The nations largest mortgage company Countrywide reports sharply lower profits as losses in subprime take its toll.

NYSE groups profit doubles though the numbers missed analysts expectations.

Delta emerges from bankruptcy 2 years and 6,000 job cuts later.

Gold prices are heading sharply lower this morning which makes me think this is a great buying opportunity.

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Market Recap

The Dow blasted through 13,000 and the rest of the indices followed. While I would still expect a pullback on the Dow to test support at 12,800, I would not count on it given the strength in recent days. Even the slightest dip seems to be a great buying opportunity.

Precious metals led the way today while the brewers were the big laggards.They are probably taking the passing away of Comrade Boris pretty hard.

Apple blew away earning expectations after hours and the stock is soaring. Look for more strength in the Nasdaq and Qs tomorrow.

Akamai is tumbling after earnings failed to impress. The numbers were accidently slipped an hour before the close via an 8-K filing and an astute trader could have profitted handsomely.

Qualcomm Q2 profit rose 22%.The stock is flat in after hours trading.

Nutrisystem delivered blow out earnings and very impressive guidance causing a big pop in the stock price of the diet food maker. I remember buying this stock at $4.60 and selling it soon after. 1500% later I wonder what I was thinking. "Weight loss food is just a fad !"

Crude oil prices rise after inventory shortages are reported. These shortages will likely become surpluses in the not too distant future as always causing oil prices to decline. I think short oil here is a pretty safe bet considering we are in the high end of the $50-$65 range.

Interesting read

A good article I read today.

Too much like 1929

"The two major players in the world financial system at that time were the United
States and Great Britain. The United States was the emerging industrial power,
whereas Great Britain was the mature and stagnating industrial power. The
central bank of the emerging industrial power (the US) printed money in an
effort to prop up the economy of the mature industrial power (Great Britain).
The inflation of the money supply resulted in the overheating of the economy and
the stock market of the emerging industrial power. It was the crash in the stock
market of the emerging industrial power (the US) that brought about the crash in
all the world’s stock markets and the Great Depression followed later.

Now fast forward to today, and what you see is China as the emerging industrial
power and the United States as the mature and stagnating industrial power. China
is printing money in an effort to prop up the economy of the mature industrial
power (the US). The inflation of the money supply is resulting in the
overheating of the Chinese economy and stock market. Very interestingly, on
February 27, 2007, it was the sharp 9% one-day drop in the Chinese stock market
that led to the sharp drop in stock markets worldwide, including the US. People
may be conditioned to think that economic events in developing countries pale in
significance to economic events in the US, and may fail to see how what happens
“way over there” in China would have any significant impact on their economic
well-being. But how different the truth really is. I think most people even now
after the February 27th turn of events, fail to grasp why the US stock market
sold off so sharply after the Chinese stock market sell off occurred first. The
idea that a foreign stock market could dictate what happens in the US stock
market almost offends the American sense of national pride (so the event is
casually dismissed as “market irrationality”). A word of advice: you better get
used to it, as there is much more of that to come. The crash is coming."

Pre market

Weakness in Asia though the Shanghai Composite continues its march towards 4000.The European markets are strong and the US markets are expected to show strength today.

Orders for durable goods were up 3.4% in March signaling a recovery in business spending.

Akamai, Apple, LSI , LifeCell, NutriSystem and Rambus are some of the earnings that I will be paying attention to.

Pepsi Q1 profit increases 16% on strength in international sales.

Boeing Q1 profit was up 27% with strong demand in its commercial airplanes and defense divisions.

I want to be long semiconductors via the ETF USD.

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Market Recap

Close but no cigar. The Dow almost got to 13,000 just 10 points away at one stage but it wasn't to be. The Qs are breaking out and I want to be long QLD here, to take maximum advantage of the upside. Semis had a great day and I did well being long SNDK and MU.

Honeywell and IBM helped prop the Dow up today despite 16 of 30 components being in the red.

Household goods led the way while steel was the worst performing sector in part due to US Steels poor earnings.

Amazon doubled its profit and its shares are soaring in after hours.Still with such high multiples, I would want to go short AMZN once the momentum dies down.Its the 15% short interest thats helping this stock soar.

Whirlpools net fell but the stock soared due to numbers not being as bad as analysts feared. Lesson: Buy stocks of companies that are expected to disappoint.

$10 air fares coming to a place near you. New budget carrier plans to make money selling advertising. Hmmmmm not a bad idea. They could be on to something.

Home sales drop along with consumer confidence. And they were saying the housing market is bottoming. How do they come up with such BS analysis ?

Pre Market

The markets across Asia are mixed while the European indices are all red.

Toyota is now officially the worlds No. 1 auto seller surpassing GM.

Earnings calendar

Military contractor Lockheeds Q1 profit was up 17% due to sale of land holdings and tax benefits.Is Lockheed now in the real estate business ?

Chemical maker DuPonts Q1 profit climbed 16% with higher seed sales and pharmaceutical income.

Alcatel-Lucent reports a Q1 operating loss due to falling sales in its wireless and network divisions.Shres are up 5% in premarket.

Alot of earnings to look forward to today. I am keeping an eye on Amazon, Ameriprise, US Steel ,Pepsi, SunMicro, and Travelzoo among others.

Carl Icahn is unloading his Stratosphere casino and 3 others to Goldman Sachs real estate funds for $1.3B. How appropriate for Goldman to get into the casino buiness since they are already well established in the biggest casino of all (Wallstreet).

Will the Dow finally cross 13,000 today ? The futures are strong pre market indicating we will get close.

Monday, April 23, 2007

Market Recap

The major indices fell for the day which was a surprise considering the Dow had been up 7 straight days. I expect any pullback to be a buying opportunity. The market wants to go up and up.

There was a belief that rising oil prices resulted in todays pullback. What a load of crap. If a rise in oil leads to a fall in the markets, the indices should be down 70% over the last few years considering the run up in oil prices.

Coal was the best performing industry while the airlines were the worst( higher oil prices).

Texas Instruments bullish forecast for the chip sector has its shares up over 9% in after hours. TXN sells chips to Motorola. So a bullish outlook by TXN is good for MOT. I want to be long MOT and I also want to be long Netgear since wireless keeps gaining ground and NTGR provides wireless routers and more.

Amgen Q1 profit rises and the shares are up in after hours . Amgen was hovering around $55 a few weeks back and is now at $62+. Worst of all, I had a limit order @ $55 and AMGNs low was $55.13. I could feel AMGN was at a bottom but I felt a bottom would come below $55 and I was wrong. Oh well. The whole Biotech sector is on fire. I think I would want to be long CELG, GILD, DNA and GENZ among others. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em.

Comrade Boris died today. I would short Diageo DEO, the distributor of premium alcohol brands considering Yeltsin was likely their biggest consumer. He was constantly drunk and I reckon he always carried a flask hidden in the inside pocket of his jacket.

Pre Market

The markets in Asia are bullish this morning while the European markets are mixed.


Hasbro profit beats estimates on strong demand for Spider Man Toys. Hasbro's 5 year deal with Marvel to sell toys based on Marvels
characters is really paying off.I believe Hasbro will continue enjoying strong profit growth in the coming years.

L-3 profit increases 17% with strong demand for government services and aircraft modernization among others.

Amgen, Boston Scientific and Texas Instruments are among some of the big companies announcing earnings today.

Barclays is acquiring ABN Amro for $91.16B in the largest bank takeover ever.In the process, ABN is selling it US subsidiary LaSalle Bank to Bank of America for $21B.

AstraZeneca is acquiring MedImmune for $15.2B, a 21% premium.People who bought into this company in Mid March are making close to a 100%" return in a month. Thats 1,200% annualized. I guess piggybacking on a Carl Icahn company is a profitable strategy.

Sunday, April 22, 2007


I was thinking of a few pair trade ideas. First one on my mind is Blockbuster and Netflix. I would want to go long Blockbuster and short Netflix. I know Blockbuster has been eating Netflix lunch the last few quarters and that should continue until Netflix makes some change to its business model such as acquiring Movie Gallery.
Pair Trade #1 - Long BBI $6.21 , Short NFLX 22.10

I am looking at a one year chart of General Motors versus Toyota and it looks like GM has outperformed by quite a bit. GM is up around 50% while TM is virtually unchanged. I do not expect this to continue. I would like to be long TM and short GM. Infact if one wants to make it more interesting, they can bring Ford in the mix to and short it. Long TM and short GM and F.
Pair Trade #2 - Long TM $125.93 , Short GM $31.68 (Short F $7.75).

Hewlett-Packard has done remarkebly well over the last year while Dell has been beaten up. With Michael Dell back at the helm I expect things to change. I would like to be long DELL and short HPQ here. With HPQ up over 100% in 2 years and Dell down 30% I expect things to change.
Pair Trade #3 - Long DELL $24.99 , Short HPQ $41.37

Friday, April 20, 2007


The Dow is up 15 of the last 16 trading sessions and over 700 points in the process. This run reminds me of the November/December 2004 run when we did 800 points in 3 weeks. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were on fire too.

The Phlx housing sector index lead the way with big gains in the homebuilders.

The rise in oil prices meant the airline sector underperformed.

Gold is on the rise and is closing in on $700. Yesterdays dip was a great buy opportunity.

Speaking of dips, I would be long the markets if I could get in on a dip. The recent rise is looking too parabolic for my liking. Until I see some sanity, I'm staying on the sidelines though I continue to hold long positions.

Pre Market

The Asian markets are a complete opposite of yesterday while Europe is very strong too.

Earnings Calendar

Google Q1 profit climbs 69% beating analyst expectations.

McDonald's Q1 profit climbs boosted by surging sales in Europe.

Pfizer Q1 profit declines with lower than expected sales of diabetes drug and one time charges.

Schlumberger profit jumps 63% on strong international demand.

Caterpillar profit beats expectations with international demand once again playing a powerful part.

It appears a lot of these multinationals do not have to worry about a US recession as long as international demand stays strong. Thats where most of the money is being made these days. With high growth in places like China and India with a combined population of nearly 3 billion, there is a lot of growth to be had.

Gold prices are taking off this morning after a pullback yesterday.

The US market futures are pointing to a strong open. I would not be surprised to see 13,000 on the Dow today.

Thursday, April 19, 2007


The market continues to baffle me. After overnight weakness across Asia and Europe I was expecting a 50-100 point downday. We still have 2 hours to go but I highly doubt we will see a selloff of high magnitude. Currently around 19 of the Dow components are higher which means this rally is not all that broad based. Midcaps and Small Caps are lagging and the PHLX gold/silver index is getting hammered. Only 8 of my 22 long positions are actually up on the day and most of them barely.

Looks to me like there is rotation going on into the large cap less volatile stocks. I figure even with a recession these large caps will not drop by much considering they are multinationals with a big portion of earnings coming from overseas. Being long the big cap Dow names is probably the safest bet out there. I think the only Dow component I would stay away from is GM. The rest all look like buys.

UPDATE In between the start and finish of my post, the Dow lost 25 points. Maybe the market is sane afterall though I would not get my hopes up.

Pre Market

The indices across Asia are heavily in the red with a 4.5% drop in Shanghai and large drops in Singapore and Hong Kong too. Europe is not any better and I expect this downside momentum to carry on into the US market. Remember, it was a 8% drop in China that started our 400 point drop on Feb. 27.

Jobless claims drop though not as much as forecast.

Leading indicators and Philly Fed survey are two important pieces of economic data out later today.

China's economy continues to surge as an 11.1% Q1 growth rate fuels fears of further rate hikes and thus the 4.5% drop in the Shanghai composite .

US foreclosures up 47% in March on worsening housing conditions in California and MidWest.

Earnings Calendar

Merrill profit jumps 31% on investment banking and trading revenue.

Altria profit falls 21% but raises guidance for rest of the year.

Gilead profit surges 55% on growth in sales of HIV treatment.

The futures are showing a very weak market open. I expect overall market weakness today on profit taking and as a reaction to overnight action in Asia and Europe. QID, DXD, SDS, MZZ, TWM all look good today.

Wednesday, April 18, 2007


The Dow surges to all time highs. The DJIA is up 13 of the last 14 sessions which is incredible. Volume was stronger than usual today though there was plenty of selling in the last hour. I would like to see a low volume pullback to about 12600 before I decide to enter long.

The subprime bailout is here courtesy of Freddie and Wamu.

Ebay profit surges.I think Ebay is still a growth story and will outperform in the years ahead.

Vonage on the verge of bankruptcy. This has to be the worst IPO ever.

Blockbuster is beating up on Netflix. The advantage of being able to return movies to the store and rent new ones is clearly paying of. I think Netflix needs to buy MovieGallery Inc., the parent company of Hollywood Video. NFLX has $400 million of cash on its balance sheet and MOVI has a market cap of $130 mil and around $1 billion of debt.


Looks like the Dow is making new highs once again. The Nasdaq and the small caps are lagging. There appears to be distribution on the SPY and DIA .

I am kind of annoyed that I missed the last 200 point of the Dow rally. I participated in the entire 12,000 to 12,600 move upwards. I did not expect us to be at all time highs on the Dow so soon after the February 27 plunge. However my long positions continue to outperform the market which is some consolation. I am at a stage where I do not see the benefit of being long since May is around the corner and the markets generally underperform May through September. In my view the current market rally is not broad based. A few big cap names like JPM, Caterpillar and Boeing are are responsible for todays gain in the Dow . The move up last Friday was entirely attributable to Merck. In other words one stock was responsible for a 60 point move on the Dow.

Pre Market

The Asian indices are mostly green while Europe is almost completely red.


Motorola posts Q1 loss and first sales decline in 4 years.

JP Morgan posts record profit due to M&A and underwriting activity.

Yahoo share price plunges as Q1 earnings lower than expected.

IBM posts higher earnings that are inline with analyst expectations.

Massive Blackberry failure across Western hemisphere leads to drop in Research in Motion stock price.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac creating new loan programs to save subprime customers. What next ? 100 yr fixed mortgages .

Oil prices decline below $63 as crude supply builds.

The futures are indicating a lower open for the major indices. While today seems an appropriate day for some profit taking ahead of tomorrows important economic data releases, I would not rule out another rally which takes us to record highs on the Dow considering we are only 20 points away.

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Pre Market

Mixed markets across Asia and a lot of red arrows in Europe.

The US Dollar continues to show weakness.As the USD falls, peoples purchasing power declines leading to higher inflation.So how can inflation be under control if the USD keeps heading downhill ?

Inflation concern eases as core prices rise less than forecast despite a surge in CPI due to higher gas prices. Apart from housing, food and gas are most peoples biggest expenses and if we are excluding this from the 'core' whats the use of measuring inflation ?

March housing starts show unexpected increase for 2nd straight month.I hope people take this as a sign of a housing market bottom and start bidding up homebuilder stocks. That way I can put on some low risk shorts.

Monday, April 16, 2007


The major indices finished sharply higher with the S&P 500 at six year highs.

Foreclosures in the US double from last year. Home builder confidence at lowest level.

Google purchase of Doubleclick boosts online ad companies share prices.

Some long awaited good news for Boston Scientific as FDA lifts restrictions on heart devices. BSX is an excellent buy at these prices.

Fremont shares up sharply as mortgage lender agrees to sell $2.9 billion of its subprime loans in a company saving move.

7 things i'm thinking

  1. Where is the market volume ? Is it summer already ?
  2. Economic data has no effect on the market. Why bother releasing it.
  3. If the market is at all time highs, how can a slowdown in earnings be priced in ?
  4. I think the Shanghai Composite will make to 4000 before the end of the month. Sick.
  5. The plethora of private equity buyouts is a result of cheap money; not because of attractive valuations.
  6. With the falling USD, sooner or later this is bound to have a negative effect on equities.
  7. If the Fed continues to pump equities, gold is of to $800 or more.


The indices are up big today and the Dow is now up 11 of the last 12 sessions which is a phenomenal streak.

Gold has been gaining strength in the last hour or so of trading. $700 is not far off.

The financial sector has been leading the way today with Goldman Sachs having a particularly good day breaking through key resistance at $208.

The last 2 hours of trading will be key as always.

Pre Market

Strong markets across Asia with very big moves in China and India. The European indices are very bullish too. This global bullishness is expected to continue into the US markets.

Retail sales were higher in March indicating consumer spending is still strong.

Citigroup Q1 earnings decline but beats estimates.

In light of the strength in overseas markets, I expect the US markets too have a moderately bullish day ahead of tomorrows CPI numbers. Financials which have been trailing in recent weeks, look exceptionally strong today with the big Wall Street banks all up in pre market trading.

Thursday, April 12, 2007

Market Recap

A strong day in the market with the major indices closing in the green.

The railroads did really well today in part due to Warren Buffett's decision to buy an 11% stake in Burlington Northern Santa Fe. Call it the 'Buffett' affect. Did he not rally the oil sector last year with his stake in Conoco Phillips ?

The banking sector continues to underperform due in part to the subprime crisis. A strong broad based rally without the participation of the banks is not a bullish sign.

The tire industry group has been up over 50% year to date. Who would have thought ?

The home builders are down nearly 20%. I would have thought it would have been worse.Its just that the builders are so heavily shorted that the slightest news rallies them.

Evidence is mounting that consumer spending is slowing. Hey, just hand them out some
0% interest, no payment for 1 yr credit cards and that will take care of the issue.

Pre Market

Mixed markets across Asia and a sea of red in Europe.
The Shanghai Composite keeps making new highs and is up over 30% since that February 27 'crash'.

Here is a word we will be hearing a lot of over the coming weeks and months;
stag·fla·tion /stægˈfleɪʃən/ Pronunciation[stag-fley-shuhn]
–noun an inflationary period accompanied by rising unemployment and lack of growth in consumer demand and business activity.
[Origin: 1965–70; b. stagnation and inflation]

US import prices rise 1.7%, more than twice the amount forecast. More inflation worries.

Initial jobless claims rose the most in 2 months. I'm not surprised here. A lot of big companies are laying off employees.

Walmart warns of 'challenging' 1st quarter. If you look at a growth curve, I believe Walmart
is in the 'decay' or decline stage.

Nestle to buy Gerber from Novartis for $5.5 billion in US expansion effort. Not a bad price to pay for 79% of the US baby food market.

The National Association of Realtors see home prices falling in 2007. I'm shocked.' Home prices never decline !' Thats what my Realtor told me.

The futures are pointing to a lower market open. Where the markets go today is anybody's guess.

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Market Recap

The indices were all deep in the red. No surprise considering the Dow has been up 8 straight days. Volume was also back in the market today after last weeks lacklusture showing. The market rises the last several sessions on low volume and sells off on high volume. Hmmmmm. Could we be already be in a bear market ?

Research in Motion increases profit 10 fold and stock is off 5% in after hours. Ah, the disappointment of just meeting earning expectations.

UPDATE I hear Willa Ford is going to play Anna Nicole Smith in a movie about her life and death. I think Willa is way too hot to play Anna. You be the judge.


The market is tanking. The Fed minutes show additional rate increases may be necessary.

Pre Market

The Asian markets are mixed while Europe is in rally mode.

The EIA Petroleum Status report and the FOMC minutes are the two big items to watch out for in todays economic calendar.

Alcoa Q1 profit up 9% due to increased demand from China and the aerospace industry.

The US Dollar is making a rebound after hitting 2 year lows against the Euro on reduced speculation of rate cuts. This does not augur wellf or the bulls.

The big investment banks of Wall Street profit while the small investor gets screwed in the subprime debacle. One needs to be more careful about what they are investing in. Investment banks will try to pimp any crap to the individual investor.

The news keeps getting better for Yahoo as Viacom chooses it as its in-site search engine. Yahoo's stock price is up nearly 40% over the last 6 months.

The Dow has been up 8 days in a row, something which has not happened in 5 years. The previous time it was up 8 days in a row, it fell 3.6% the following day.

In other news, my fund did well yesterday on our correct bet on the identity of Anna Nicole Smiths daughter. This uncorrelated position of mine was a good bet since it was completely unrelated to any market anywhere.

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Pre Market

The markets are mixed across Asia. The European indices are mainly in the green.

China's expanding trading surplus. I'm guessing a big portion comes at the expense of the US.

100 million iPods sold . Will the iPod go the way of the Walkman as more consumers choose cell phones with music and video access ?

Dow Chemical denies buyout rumors. Who are we supposed to believe ?

Buffett buying the railroads, acquires 10% stake in Burlington Northern Santa Fe.

Major stakeholders oust CFO of video game maker TakeTwo Interactive.

Citigroup trimming down, with plans to cut 15,000 to 45,000 jobs.

Staying true to CEOs statement that 2007 will 'suck', DR Horton announced Q2 orders fell 37%.

A flat open is expected in the US markets. Alcoa reports after the bell, kicking off earnings season.

Monday, April 09, 2007


Here is a video of those 15 British 'captives' being 'tortured' and put under 'physical duress' by those evil Iranians.

2 weeks of chess and ping pong and endless meals of Persian food. Man thats some hardcore torture. I wonder what the Geneva Covention has to say about that ?

Market Recap

The markets ended flat amid some wild swings . Job growth is strong and the Fed will not be cutting rates anytime soon. So I guess the bulls have less reason to celebrate.

Crude oil continues its tumble. When are prices at the pump going to fall ? Thats what I want to know.

AMD sales decline not as bad as expected. The stock was almost priced for bankruptcy last week.

US files piracy charges against China at WTO. The Chinese are probably thinking something along the lines of " We lend you money so you can buy our pirated versions of your hollywood movies and software products ! "

Did you know Larry Kudlow was addicted to drugs and alcohol ? Listening to him on CNBC has me thinking he needs to go back to rehab.

The IRS apprehended my algorithm programmer to gain access to confidential information about my investment activities. After they threatened and subjected him to physical abuse he came clean about me.

Pre Market

The markets are strong across Asia and Europe.

The strong job numbers is likely to have a positive effect on the market.

Future traders are betting on continued strength in the Euro.

Utility company Mirant is putting itself up for sale. The utility sector has been a strong performer over the last several months with the TXU buyout and all.

Dow Chemical is on the buyout block too. KKR and a group of Middle Eastern investors the potential acquirers here.

Pre market, the futures are indicating a strong start to the trading day.

Thursday, April 05, 2007


The major indices closed higher on very light volume. The markets are closed tomorrow and as expected there were no fireworks today.

Kerkorians Tracinda group is offering to buy Chrysler from DaimlerChrysler AG for $4.5 billion. Kirk is 89 years old and at his advanced age I wonder if he still calling the shots ? And does his bid for Chrysler mean he's through with GM ?

The Euro has moved to 2 year highs against the US Dollar. There is talk of a huge inverted head and shoulder formation that could take the Euro to 1.45 and beyond. Long FXE.

The Dow has been up 6 consecutive days. The last 6 day up streak was in November just prior to that 180 point down day.

The casino capital of the world. No its not Vegas.

Here is a great tool that can track the correlation of various positions in your portfolio.

Looking at the week ahead here are some of my thoughts
  • Volume will return in a big way after this holiday shortened week
  • Bullish sentiment will be high next week which will probably lead to some downside
  • Employment numbers are out tomorrow and it will likely move the market significantly
  • Who will private equity buyout next week ?
  • As the indices close in on the point prior to the Feb 27th plunge, alot of market participants have already forgotten about Black Tuesday.


Listening in on the GRZ conference call. Last week GRZ, a gold mining entity received the all important environmental and construction permit for their Brisas mine in Venezuela. Stock is up over 50% since then. Things sound very promising. I am adding to my position . I anticipate a big miner will take a stake at a premium in this company in the not too distant future.

Pre market

Mixed markets across Asia. The same is true with the European indices.

Jobless claims are up suggesting economic growth is still sluggish.

China is increasing bank reserve requirements in order to stem growth.

The Board of England leaves interest rates unchanged.


Constellation Brands beats analyst estimates on rising beer sales.

Micron Tech indicates memory chip pricing seems to have stabilized.

Ninetendo beats sales and profit estimates. I do believe this will be the case for the rest of the year. The WII is going to do for Nintendo what the IPOD did for Apple.

Futures indicate a mixed open . I do not expect to see a big move in either direction today ahead of the long weekend. Volume has been light all week and will continue to be so today.

Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Pre Market

Another day of green arrows across the Asian markets. The European markets are mixed at this stage.

The ADP employment number suggests moderate job growth.

Factory orders and ISM non-manufacturing report are the other key economic data coming out today.


Monsters profit falls short of forecast.

Best Buy profit increases due to high flat panel television demand ( Super Bowl ). Rival Circuit City posts a loss in part due to restructuring.

The markets appear for a flat to lower open. How well it does from there depends on the factory order and ISM reports.

Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Market Recap

The indices rallies to 5 week highs. I was not impressed with the volume and therefore sold a big portion of my bull ETFs. I also took some of the table on a few long positions that were not performing today.

An unexpected but welcome jump in home sales powered todays rally. I do not see this rise in home sales as a sign of a real estate market recovery.

US automakers saw March sales decline while Toyota sales continued to rise.
TCG view: Toyota makes autos that have universal appeal. Ford, GM and Chrysler do not.

A subprime lender gets a boost and shares surge. Do I smell other bailouts on the horizon ?

Goldman Sachs gets a kick in the ass. I guess all that 'inside' information and technology at their disposal still couldn't save them.

Is a chip maker recovery underway as inventories start to decline ? There appear to be plenty of 'bargains' in the chip sector.

I love pulling out investment ideas from these screens. A word of caution; These screens are not a substitute for your own homework.

Is Jones Soda the next Hansen ? The stock is on a tear .

Tax season is here and if the IRS decides to come after me I'm going to pull one of these.......

Pre Market

The Asian markets were very strong overnight with solid green arrows all over. The momentum from Asia looks to have carried over to the European indices. I expect the bullish momentum to carry over to the US markets.

The pending home sales index will be the big piece of economic data released today.

Crude oil settles down as the dispute between Iran and the UK eases.

The US dollar has been gaining strength this morning while the Japanese Yen is pulling back.

Moodys is cutting credit ratings on up to 40-50 US and European banks. Banks are visibly upset.

Monday, April 02, 2007

Market Recap

The major indices ended the session slightly higher. There was noticeable strength in the last 2 hours of trading which is an encouraging sign from a bullish perspective. April is historically the second strongest month of the year for equities, even more so in the 3rd year of the Presidential cycle.

A lower than anticipated manufacturing number put a lid on the markets early on though, the number does indicate economic expansion albeit at a slower pace.

Commercials have increased there net long positions/decreased short positions in recent weeks.

Utilities and energy are leading the way while tech and financials are lagging.

As expected New Century filed for bankruptcy. I expect companies like Countrywide to benefit tremendously as some of the weaker lenders go bust. People will still get mortgages and that means more business for the survivors in the mortgage lending industry.

Is the ethanol craze going to be replaced by the biobutanol craze ?

With Microsoft and Google bidding for Doubleclick, there are other names that could potentially be taken out in the online ad placement niche.


The markets across Asia are mixed with India dropping nearly 5% after an interest rate hike. The European markets are mostly green.

Private equity continues buyout spree with purchase of First Data.

Xerox is acquiring Global Imaging Systems for 1.5 billion.

The major US indices are expected to open higher this morning. I expect the mergers and acquisitions announced to have a positive impact on todays market.