Tuesday, October 30, 2007


Thats right. Halloween is right around the corner. What will Mr. Bernanke have in store for us ? Thats the million dollar question . "To cut or not to cut ?" Half a point cut and we will get a good rally. Quarter point and perhaps a little upside. No cut and we will probably collapse like a stack of cards.

I think we will get some sort of rate cut. Bernanke has his hands tied. Credit market are in a tight spot. Long Gold and Silver are my plays for tomorrow. We got a slight pullback which allowed me to add to my GLD and SLV positions. I expect them to soar on a cut. Financials and Homebuilders should get a good boost too.

I continue to clean out my portfolio dumping out stuff like IBKR among others. When all is done I expect to be down to 25 positions or so. I'm tired of holding underperforming positions. Its time to add quality. I'm expecting a recession. I don't think the US consumer is going to be around much longer. The fall in home values added to increasing prices at the pump, grocery stores and retail establishments is pressuring the consumer. Once the layoffs pick up, the party will be over. No amount of rate cuts will save us. I think we need a good hard recession. Some hardship is good. Makes one stronger. Us Americans have become a lazy bunch, always expecting someone to help us out.

Well tomorrow is the big day. Everyone better be prepared.

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