Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Market Recap

In After Hour trading my positions in FFIV and NTRI got blown away. I was stopped out of half my FFIV position during regular trading hours. I like RVBD better and will probably buy some in the next few days. I will probably double up on NTRI because I don't think things can get any worse though I felt the same 20 points back ....

Lets break NTRI down. They will earn around $3 this year. At $25 a share that is a PE of 8.33. They will likely do atleast $3 next year if you factor in international growth . I figure NTRI will double its earnings in 5 years to atleast $6 a share. Even at a conservative PE of 15 thats $90 a share in 5 years. Thats an annualized return of better than 25%. To top it of, management is repurchasing up to $100 million of shares in the coming months. And Tiger Global management recently doubled their stake.

AKAM released earnings an beat by a penny. The stock was up a little in after hours trading. I believe AKAM should be trading at $45-50 and not where it currently is ($33.54). Having averaged better than 100% annualized growth over the last 5 years and and expected growth rate of 30% over the next 5 years I believe at even 30 times next years earnings ($1.66) AKAM shoud be $49.80.

NYX continues moving higher printing $90 today. I think $100 is close at hand and perhaps even $120 by years end.

AMZN got beaten up today. While hope is not a viable investment strategy, I really do want to see AMZN back at $50. People who paid $100 for AMZN are stupid. This is a retail play. AMZN will not grow at better than 40% annually over the next 5 years. Even 30% growth is pushing it. How can you justify paying even $87 for a stock that has earned 87 cents per share the last 12 months ? Even if AMZN does $2 a share next year which is 30% higher than consensus it still trades at almost 44 times 2008 earnings ! The only thing that keeps AMZN up is Bill Miller and Legg Mason. They own 20% of the company and are reducing holdings by half by years end. AMZN is an old lady and Legg Mason/Bill Miller is her walker. Take the walker away and the old lady crumbles.

The market appears to have put in a bottom today. Oil is looking toppy. A Fed rate cut is coming. The Bulls are hungry. The Bears defeated. I sense a strong rally tomorrow.

I continue buying SNDK. This chip stock has been beaten up for no fault of its own. Trading at 17 times 2008 earnings with a 5 year growth rate of 35% and expected to grow at better than 22% going forward, this is a great buy. I see an easy $100 inside of 3 years.

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