Sunday, May 06, 2007

The Week Ahead

Here is an economic calendar for the week ahead. All eyes will be on the Fed meeting and subsequent announcement concerning interest rates. International trade, producer price index and retail sales will also be the big economic data to keep a lookout for. This market rally began with the Fed announcement in late March. Could this announcement reverse the market especially if the Fed makes it clear that rate cuts will not be forthcoming ?

I will be keeping an eye on the Shanghai Composite to see how it reacts after being closed for almost a whole week. I still believe that a reversal in the current market trend will start in China. In addition, I will be closely watching the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen for any change in trend. If the USD rallies, the markets could reverse course. The same is true of a Yen rally. So far the correlation has been strong between a declining USD and Yen and a rising equity market.
I expect traders will be more circumspect in the trading days ahead due to the important Fed announcement.

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