Thursday, November 15, 2007


Its November 15th and that means hedge fund redemption day ( 45 days from end of quarter).

How will this effect the market ? August 15th was the previous redemption day and the markets moved decisively lower culminating in a bottom on the 16th. Is this a possible scenario or will we slice the August lows like a warm knife through butter ? Just a thought to keep in mind as this trading day unfolds. I would in particular look for moves lower in the momentum type names like AAPL GOOG SPWR CMG RIMM AMZN BIDU FSLR and all the other big gainers of the last 3 months if this case were to unfold.

The Yen is up against the Dollar this morning suggesting a move lower in the markets. The CPI consumer price index rose 0.3% with the increase in gas prices being a major factor. Jobless benefits were also up. Futures point to a lower open across the board.

I believe today and tomorrow are going to be very telling days for US equities and global equities for that matter. A break of Mondays lows and perhaps even those of August suggests a bear market is upon us. I would be very cautious by keeping plenty of cash at hand and staying as hedged as possible.

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