Tuesday, January 22, 2008

STOCK MARKET CRASH

Today is going to be one hell of a day in the equity markets. Dow futures are showing an open of down 500 points. The way things are shaping up I expect the circuit breakers to be deployed especially as the Dow flirts with minus 1000. This will be the biggest market crash since 1987.
The Fed has stepped in and cut rates by 75 basis points . A Fed cut at this stage is like treating cancer with Aspirin. It will have no effect.

The play for todays market is probably to cut back on long positions by atleast 50%. I am sitting on almost 30% cash with another 20% in inverse long ETFs such as SKF and SRS. I do have one silly play having gone long QLD though the losses here will be more than cancelled out by my inverse ETFs. It was fear of a bounce that held me out from being atleast 50% invested in inverse ETFs. I should have been more afraid of a day like this in retrospect. Oh well I have plenty of cash and can deploy it as I see fit. I could go long and buy quality names at a huge markdown or I could play the bull ETFs if I see capitulation. On the other hand I could throw it all into QID DDM SDS MZZ FXP or other inverse ETFs if I see things headed lower.

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oops!!! Hindsight is 20/20 when dealing with the market. While you were correct on the indications of the futures showing an opening 500 points lower, the Fed tonic did stave off a rout. Predictions are tough. Sometimes it might be better to caution people against panic, doom and gloom. If we all keep our wits about us, we may even pull through this crisis with a bit more wisdom!

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What is the correlation between early hour futures movement and the actual stock indexes?

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