Thursday, February 08, 2007


I read this article pertaining to a potential recovery in real estate by mid year. With the excess inventory - market has 400,000 homes more than it can handle according to one economist,I seriously doubt we will see a bottom in real estate till atleast 2008 and more like 2009. Many regions such as Florida, Arizona and California have inventories of homes exceeding a 10 month supply, with 4 months constituting a normal market. And that 10 month supply is in the face of declining home buying activity. So with slower buying, the supply is probably closer to 12-14 months. Not to mention the fact that builders are still building homes and this additional supply, will only further depress the markets. According to research from the past 100 + years, the average real estate decline from peak to bottom lasts close to 3 years. By all accounts we peaked in late 2005. Based on this analysis, we will probably bottom out in late 2008. Than again, it could take longer considering the amazing run we had between 2001-2005.

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