Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. (ADR) TKC analysis.

A quick analysis 0f Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. (ADR) TKC. Turkcell is the major provider of mobile communication services in Turkey, a fast growing nation of 70 million plus inhabitants. Turkcell is expected to grow its earnings by over 20% a year for the next 10 years and here it is priced just over $18 and a P/E ratio of under 15. Here ladies and gentleman, is a company that grew revenues between 2004 and 2005 by 33% and recorded a 78% increase in net income year over year. Some of the highlights were :

• Turkcell recorded strong subscriber growth year on year. Turkcell added 4.5 million (4.4 million) net new subscribers during 2005 and recorded a 19% increase in its overall subscriber base to 27.9 million (23.4 million) as of December 31, 2005
• Usage increased by 4% to 67.7 minutes (64.9 minutes) as a result of improvements in the macroeconomic environment, positive consumer sentiment and the effects of volume-based campaigns
• Revenue increased 33% to US$4.3 billion (US$3.2 billion) during the year ended December 31, 2005
• EBITDA increased to US$1,933.3 million (US$1,338.8 million) during the year ended December 31, 2005 and Turkcell recorded an EBITDA margin of 45% mainly due to improved operational performance
• Net income increased 78% to US$910.9 million (US$511.8 million) during the year ended December 31, 2005

Outside of Turley, Turkcell also has interests in international GSM operations in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Northern Cyprus and Ukraine. Turkcell has a potential market of over 300 million people and has so far acquired less than 30 million subcribers. Thats less than a 10 percent penetration with huge potential for future growth. Using a Discounted Cash Flow model based on a very conservative estimate of 15% growth over 10 years, Turkcell has a fair book value of around $28 which is a full $10 above the current price. For anybody interested in value investing, Turkcell is easily one of the most undervalued stocks in the market based on its current and future growth expectancy. I am sure even the great Warren Buffet would agree with the last statement.

STOCK PICKS FOR WEEK OF MARCH 10

FOR THOSE OF YOU STILL IN DXPE , CONGRATULATIONS. I SOLD OUT MOST OF MY POSITION AROUND $28.STILL FOR THOSE GETTING IN AT UNDER $20 PER MY RECOMMENDATION, THATS A PRETTY 50% GAIN. GOOD JOB !

Now for my picks for this week. After reviewing the markets and checking the indices I feel these are some of the stocks we need to be looking into.

CMG - Stock has pulled back on relatively light volume compared to huge increased volume on 3 day run up. $50 is an excellent buy in point. I don't see a downside of more than $2-3 . Keep stops right under $47.

IFO - Stock has pulled back slightly after run up to close to $12 last Friday. Stock is a Great buy under $11 and we will keep a stop at $9.70. This stock has an easy $5-10 upside short term and I would not take any money of the table before the stock hits $15 atleast.

TFSM - Now here is a stock ready to explode upwards. Momentum is building and we could easily see $15-20 very short term. I recommend a buy at around $10 ( 52 week high) and watch this stock soar. Stops need to be placed right below $9.

ICE - Stock has been volatile but I feel we will clear the 52 week high at$72.20 before running on past $80. Buy with a stop at $67.50. Sector as a whole has been RED HOT.

BUD - Yes go ahead laugh at me. Stock has made a double bottom at $40.15. Once we take out $44 I feel we should see $48 very shortly. Smart money has been pouring into this stock with the rate hikes and all. Place protective stop at $40.15.

ACAD - Stock has bounced of support at around $14.50. Buy in and place stops right below $14.00. Look for a ride up beyond 52 week highs of $17.94 set last week. Momentum is on ourside.

A quick update on our previous picks.

TKC is holding up nicely . Middle East markets have been rocked the past few weeks falling as much as 25% .In the face of all this TKC has barely flinched. Once the markets clear up TKC willclear 52 week highs at $19.60.

AAPL is a bust. I am out of this stock and so should you. The stock is out of steam.

SNDK - same as above.

OTIV - Stock is forming a nice base at around $15. Should move past 52 week highat $17.26 in the very near future.

CRED - I don't know what to make of this stock. But atleast it has not broken $20. Hang in there. We will see a move to the upside. This reminds me of DXPE.

DXPE - Take half of the table. 50% gain here folks. Lets not get greedy.

TRAD - Hope you guys take half off the table when this stock cleared $17. I think this is a good time to get back in with stops at $ 13.67.

Thats all folks. Happy hunting .

NEW PICKS

Sorry for the delay between posts. Its been a busy past few weeks. Lots of changes in my portfolio. Here is my new list. I am committed to Short term trades in the following stocks . I will also provide reasoning for my picks.

AAPL LONG TARGET: $ 72 STOP: $67.50

Reasoning: AAPL has been down because of GOOG CFO comments on Tuesday. AAPL has been on an uptrend as of late and I would look for that to continue.

CRED LONG TARGET: $ 30 STOP: $ 19

Reasoning: CRED has fallen as of late but I expect stock to rise back towards 30 as momentum shifts to upside as 20-21 appears to be a solid base. I took profits of CRED last time it went to $26-27 couple weeks back.

DXPE LONG TARGET: $ 20 STOP: $17.50

Reasoning: DXPE has been bashed up as of late for no fault of its own. Earnings were up and we expect the trend to continue with latest earning news ahead. Stock will rebound nicely.

OTIV LONG TARGET: $17 STOP $14.25

Reasoning: OTIV has great upside momentum and than BOOM. Downgrade. Overreaction caused stock to full from 16s to 14s . Stock was inching towards 18 just a couple weeks back.

SNDK LONG TARGET: $ 70 STOP: $59

Reasoning: Here we go Baby . SNDK is back. After that rather long dreary pullback stock is ready to climb upwards and has such strong momentum that Tuesdays broad pullback did not affect it.

TRAD LONG TARGET : $17 STOP $15.25

Reasoning: TRAD is in uptrend. It has pulled back as of late and is in a trading range between 15-17. Buy when its 15s and sell high 16s low 17s


Happy Hunting Folks.