The Asian and European markets are very bullish and sign point to a higher open here on Wall Street.
Talks of a merger between ETrade and Ameritrade are having a bullish effect on the broker stocks and the overall markets in general.4 trading days ago, ETFC was as low as $9.92. Today it is over $16. Thats a better than 60% gain in 4 days. Simply amazing.
Are money market accounts safe ? Its appears a whole lot of money market accounts have subprime exposure which means serious problems could still lie ahead especially for investors who though money market accounts were risk free.
The global commodity boom continues as BHP Billiton reports strong profit growth and expects solid growth in the future as international demand soars.I would take this opportunity to add to basic material stocks - steel, aluminum , copper and so on. TIE RS AA FCX RIO all look very attractive here.
From a technical standpoint, I would be looking at S&P 1455 as resistance though I would look to add SSO if we decisively break this level and SDS if we fail. In the case of the Dow, it appears resistance is around 13200-13250 with support at the 200 day at 12851. The Nasdaq has support at the 200 day 2502 level while 2530 appears to be resistance. I will be watching these levels closely today.
Showing posts with label AAPL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AAPL. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
Earnings Focus
AAPL is extremely volatile in after hours trading as it announces blow out earnings of 92 cents a smashing estimates of 72 cents. However guidance for the 3rd quarter was offered at 65 cents a share well below the average estimate of 83 cents.
AAPL will be a good buy below $120 in my opinion and it should get there in a week ot two.
AKAM is being beaten up after hours despite beating revenue estimates and meeting profut estimates. Q3 guidance was a little weak. AKAM is a great buy under $40.
BIDU is going through the roof as earnings come in at 54 cents vs consensus of 43 cents. The stock is up over 20% in after hours. BIDU is a position I have had since it was in the 90s and I may take more profits here.
AAPL will be a good buy below $120 in my opinion and it should get there in a week ot two.
AKAM is being beaten up after hours despite beating revenue estimates and meeting profut estimates. Q3 guidance was a little weak. AKAM is a great buy under $40.
BIDU is going through the roof as earnings come in at 54 cents vs consensus of 43 cents. The stock is up over 20% in after hours. BIDU is a position I have had since it was in the 90s and I may take more profits here.
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Pre Market
A lot of earning reports , some misses and disappointments. Texas Instruments, DuPont Co. and Countrywide were some of the big misses. Lockheed Martin was one of the bright spots from with great earnings due high demand for fighter jets, missile defense and information technology. McDonalds swung to a 2Q loss due to a one time charge. American Express failed to impress as increased delinquencies has investors worried. AT&T posted a 61% profit increase though investors which also failed impress.
Earnings
Economic Calendar
Apple has been downgraded this morning and shares are under pressure. Many analysts have $200+ price targets on AAPL.
Netflix got beaten over its earnings and lowered outlook. I think NFLX is a decent buy under $17. There is a good chance it will be bought out.
Stocks I am keeping a close watch on include GOOG AAPL RIMM GRMN AMZN MSFT CSCO C GS BAC XOM GE IBM . How these stocks fare has a huge impact on the overall market.
Earnings
Economic Calendar
Apple has been downgraded this morning and shares are under pressure. Many analysts have $200+ price targets on AAPL.
Netflix got beaten over its earnings and lowered outlook. I think NFLX is a decent buy under $17. There is a good chance it will be bought out.
Stocks I am keeping a close watch on include GOOG AAPL RIMM GRMN AMZN MSFT CSCO C GS BAC XOM GE IBM . How these stocks fare has a huge impact on the overall market.
Friday, July 06, 2007
Recap
The major indices all finished higher though the volume was once again very light. Gold, mining and construction were the big winners today while paper and the brewers were the losing sectors. RZ TCN POL AMCC VIMC ETC were the biggest gainers while MTEX PMTC BHIP were the biggest losers among individual issues. With regards to the porfolio, I had huge gains in BIDU UXG PRAI HANS NYX LVS MU and SNDK . BIDU has been on fire along with names like RIMM GOOG AAPL TNH CROX FSLR and its starting to take the feel of a market top with parabolic moves.
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The job situation in June was essentially as expected, but Wall Street was taken completely by surprise by a stunning upward revision to the numbers for the prior two months.
Nonfarm employers added 132,000 workers last month, while about 125,000 had been forecast, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.5%, the Labor Department said Friday.
However, the big news came in the change for April and May, when, combined, 75,000 more jobs were created than the government first reported. The Street
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Crude oil rose to a 10-month high on concern unrest in Nigeria and maintenance of a North Sea oil field will curb supply as unexpected refinery closures cut fuel output.
The main militant group in Nigeria's oil-producing Niger River delta region condemned the kidnapping of a 3-year-old British girl. Brent oil, produced in the North Sea, is also rising because of planned maintenance at a field in the region. Refineries in California, Texas and Kansas have shut or slowed operations this week. Bloomberg
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Zurich-based financial giant UBS (UBS) has a disconcerting habit of dispensing with senior managers without warning. Luqman Arnold was shoved out as chief executive officer in December, 2001, and replaced by Peter Wuffli in circumstances shrouded with mystery. Now, Wuffli has lost out in a boardroom coup.
In the early hours of July 6, UBS surprised just about everyone by announcing that the group chief executive would "relinquish all of his functions at UBS and leave the bank." Wuffli will be replaced by Marcel Rohner, the deputy CEO and chief of UBS's most valuable business, private banking (or Global Wealth Management, as it is officially known). Business Week
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WHO KNEW
Some interesting action in Hilton Hotels calls pre the announcement ... Value Discipline
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Friday's COTs report - based on the previous Tuesday's data - has really moved into strange territory for the equity indexes - a true jumble of bullish and bearish signals. The "dumb money" small traders have struck a historically extreme net long position in S&P 500 futures and options. This gave me a new bearish signal on Friday. COTs Timer
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U.S. stocks closed higher Tuesday and extended Monday’s rally as investors focused less on declines in pending home sales and factory orders and more on a healthy flow of merger news.
Real Estate was the only sector down for the day. Leadership for the shortened session was provided by Energy along with Technology, Financials and Industrials. All of those sectors were mentioned as areas of alpha generation in Monday’s commentary, with the exception of Financials, which in our opinion remains suspect until the issue of sub-prime lending works it way thoroughly through the system. Portable Alpha
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What is a hedge fund? Forward-looking due diligence on whether the strategy is likely to produce absolute returns in difficult times is surely the acid test. The sub-prime meltdown has revealed several leveraged beta bundlers but the market dependence was obvious AHEAD of time. Anyone with genuine skills and experience knows illiquidity can be expensive during market turbulence. It was clear since inception that Bear Stearns' two troubled credit investment products were never hedge funds. Hedge Fund
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The job situation in June was essentially as expected, but Wall Street was taken completely by surprise by a stunning upward revision to the numbers for the prior two months.
Nonfarm employers added 132,000 workers last month, while about 125,000 had been forecast, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.5%, the Labor Department said Friday.
However, the big news came in the change for April and May, when, combined, 75,000 more jobs were created than the government first reported. The Street
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Crude oil rose to a 10-month high on concern unrest in Nigeria and maintenance of a North Sea oil field will curb supply as unexpected refinery closures cut fuel output.
The main militant group in Nigeria's oil-producing Niger River delta region condemned the kidnapping of a 3-year-old British girl. Brent oil, produced in the North Sea, is also rising because of planned maintenance at a field in the region. Refineries in California, Texas and Kansas have shut or slowed operations this week. Bloomberg
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Zurich-based financial giant UBS (UBS) has a disconcerting habit of dispensing with senior managers without warning. Luqman Arnold was shoved out as chief executive officer in December, 2001, and replaced by Peter Wuffli in circumstances shrouded with mystery. Now, Wuffli has lost out in a boardroom coup.
In the early hours of July 6, UBS surprised just about everyone by announcing that the group chief executive would "relinquish all of his functions at UBS and leave the bank." Wuffli will be replaced by Marcel Rohner, the deputy CEO and chief of UBS's most valuable business, private banking (or Global Wealth Management, as it is officially known). Business Week
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WHO KNEW
Some interesting action in Hilton Hotels calls pre the announcement ... Value Discipline
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday's COTs report - based on the previous Tuesday's data - has really moved into strange territory for the equity indexes - a true jumble of bullish and bearish signals. The "dumb money" small traders have struck a historically extreme net long position in S&P 500 futures and options. This gave me a new bearish signal on Friday. COTs Timer
--------------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. stocks closed higher Tuesday and extended Monday’s rally as investors focused less on declines in pending home sales and factory orders and more on a healthy flow of merger news.
Real Estate was the only sector down for the day. Leadership for the shortened session was provided by Energy along with Technology, Financials and Industrials. All of those sectors were mentioned as areas of alpha generation in Monday’s commentary, with the exception of Financials, which in our opinion remains suspect until the issue of sub-prime lending works it way thoroughly through the system. Portable Alpha
-------------------------------------------------------------------
What is a hedge fund? Forward-looking due diligence on whether the strategy is likely to produce absolute returns in difficult times is surely the acid test. The sub-prime meltdown has revealed several leveraged beta bundlers but the market dependence was obvious AHEAD of time. Anyone with genuine skills and experience knows illiquidity can be expensive during market turbulence. It was clear since inception that Bear Stearns' two troubled credit investment products were never hedge funds. Hedge Fund
Sunday, June 24, 2007
The Week ahead
The week ahead in the capital markets will be testing. Here is an economic calendar for the week ahead. Below are the important pieces of economic data that I will be looking out for.
- Existing Home sales on Monday
- Consumer confidence and New Home sales on Tuesday
- Durable goods on Wednesday
- GDP and Federal Open Market Committee announcement on Thursday
- Personal Income and Outlays, NAPM Chicago, Construction spending and Consumer sentiment on Friday
As one can see, there will be an overload of data being thrown our way and how the market reacts will be key. The Dow, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are all at critical junctures and anything can happen. We could break support levels especially on the S&P 500 at 1490 and face a substantial drop. For now while the bull market is still intact there are subtle signs of the equity market wearing itself down. Volume on down days has been high, financials and especially banking have been breaking down and the powerful utility sector is tumbling. Not to mention oil prices breaking out to near $70.
As a side note, the ability to watch DVD movies on your computer courtesy of Netflix is going to boost the company tremendously. At a buck away from 52 week lows, NFLX is a good buy especially when you also take into account rumors of a potential buyout by Amazon.
I am also keeping a close eye on Google. The stock is breaking to all time highs and I think GOOG $600 could be on the scorecard pretty soon as long as the overall markets hold up. The release of the iPhone and the movement of Apples stock AAPL will be another item to watch.
The breakout in the Semiconductors and momentum in names like SNDK MU MXIM TXN NVDA as well as SMH and USD will require a close watch.
The movement of the US dollar, the Yen , the Euro and Gold and Silver will be of special interest to me. Long Gold, Silver and the Euro.
Monday, March 05, 2007
GOING FISHING
I am going to find some issues to go long today. There is too much doom and gloom out there. Picking some high beta names. Some NTRI, a bit of BLUD, a little AKAM, a pinch of CELG and a topping of HANS. I think I'll toss in some TZOO and a helping of GOOG for good measure.And I'll close out that blasted AAPL short position for good measure. Maybe we'll rally, maybe we won't. But if we rally I think I may outperform. If not I will just dump 'em all.In a bear market its best to position for a rally before the actual rally because, once you spot the rally its usually too late.
Tuesday, January 02, 2007
CONTEMPLATIONS, REFLECTIONS AND CLAIRVOYANCE
Looking at the past year, we've experienced ups and downs in the market. We started off strong, stunmbled in May recovered in August and had a very strong rally into the close of the year. With the Dow hitting all time highs and the S&P 500 not too far behind , 2006 was a great year for those long the equity indices. In individual sectors and stocks we have had a mix of good and bad.
First with the good. RIMM had an exceptional year. A nice 100% gain though one could have made more if they traded it through highs and lows. CRS was positively on fire through the early part of the year and one of my big winners (until I was stopped out). TIE was another rocket in the same group as CRS and I sort of regret passing TIE over for CRS. It was a toss up between TIE, ATI and CRS and I choose the slowest horse. Oh well, a 70% gain isn't so bad though I missed out on a 150% plus on the other 2. Speaking off ATI. The chart says it all. How could I have missed it ? What a Monster !! Speaking of monster the energy drink, here is a chart of HANS. I got stopped out early in the year with a small profit. I hated what happened next though I did manage to get short in the $180-200 range and ride it down to $120-130 pre-split . NTRI rocketed upwards with no stopping it till May and than recovered nicely for another big run which ended in what looks like a double top as evident from the charts ( May and December peaks). ZOLT was one hell off a stock and though it closed the year badly, it made a lot of people very rich. ERS could well have been the stock off the year if people had been smart enough to get off in early May. 600% gain in 5 months . Spectacular !! Than another huge potential gain for anyone going short. WOW !! Just look at the charts.
Now to the not so good. Does anyone think GOOG's best days are behind it ? This is one stock that is all over the place. How is someone supposed to stay long or short a stock like this ? AAPL another totally unpredictable stock. Great for trading though. Look how RACK got decimated midyear though it pulled through at the end. NETL was downright ugly. Look at this crazy stock IFON . Jan though April downtrend, huge spike in April till early June and than total collapse through July before a couple of run ups and than a reversal to a downtrend. Great for trading by the seat of your pants. A killer in most ways though. This was a pretty crapy year for EBAY till the lows in June July. YHOO had a pretty terrible year. It was a year that had it all. The good, the bad and the ugly.
First with the good. RIMM had an exceptional year. A nice 100% gain though one could have made more if they traded it through highs and lows. CRS was positively on fire through the early part of the year and one of my big winners (until I was stopped out). TIE was another rocket in the same group as CRS and I sort of regret passing TIE over for CRS. It was a toss up between TIE, ATI and CRS and I choose the slowest horse. Oh well, a 70% gain isn't so bad though I missed out on a 150% plus on the other 2. Speaking off ATI. The chart says it all. How could I have missed it ? What a Monster !! Speaking of monster the energy drink, here is a chart of HANS. I got stopped out early in the year with a small profit. I hated what happened next though I did manage to get short in the $180-200 range and ride it down to $120-130 pre-split . NTRI rocketed upwards with no stopping it till May and than recovered nicely for another big run which ended in what looks like a double top as evident from the charts ( May and December peaks). ZOLT was one hell off a stock and though it closed the year badly, it made a lot of people very rich. ERS could well have been the stock off the year if people had been smart enough to get off in early May. 600% gain in 5 months . Spectacular !! Than another huge potential gain for anyone going short. WOW !! Just look at the charts.
Now to the not so good. Does anyone think GOOG's best days are behind it ? This is one stock that is all over the place. How is someone supposed to stay long or short a stock like this ? AAPL another totally unpredictable stock. Great for trading though. Look how RACK got decimated midyear though it pulled through at the end. NETL was downright ugly. Look at this crazy stock IFON . Jan though April downtrend, huge spike in April till early June and than total collapse through July before a couple of run ups and than a reversal to a downtrend. Great for trading by the seat of your pants. A killer in most ways though. This was a pretty crapy year for EBAY till the lows in June July. YHOO had a pretty terrible year. It was a year that had it all. The good, the bad and the ugly.
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